Commercial construction tender prices increased by 1.5% in the second half of 2023, down from 2.4% in previous six months

Chartered Surveyors say national annual rate of commercial construction inflation is now running at 3.9% down from 11.5% in 2022

Reduction in rate due to stabilising material prices, reductions in energy costs and greater competitiveness within the market

Shortages of skilled labour now the main cost driver

Thursday 1st February 2024: A new report by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) shows that while construction costs are continuing to rise, the rate of increase eased significantly in the second half of 2023.

The latest Tender Price Index (TPI) published by the SCSI shows the rate of commercial construction inflation increased nationally by 1.5% in the second half of 2023, down from 2.4% in the first half of last year.

According to the SCSI’s Tender Price Index, (TPI) which is the only independent assessment of commercial construction tender prices in Ireland, the annual median national rate of inflation for the calendar year 2023 was 3.9%, down from the 11.5% recorded for 2022.

The TPI is recorded every six months and the fall for the preceding 12 months – July ’22 to June ’23 – was 6.2%, which shows the inflation rate has been on a downward trajectory for the last 18 months.

The report indicates some variation across the regions with a higher median rate of inflation of 2.2% recorded in Leinster (excluding Dublin) and 1.5% recorded for Dublin. Connacht / Ulster recorded a 2% increase while Munster recorded inflation of 1%, down from 3% in the first half of the year.

Fig 1. Construction Tender Prices 1998 – 2023 Research for the latest edition of this sentiment survey, which is based on responses from Chartered Quantity Surveyors from all around the country, working on commercial projects, was conducted in January 2024.

Kevin Brady, a member of the SCSI’s Quantity Surveying Professional Group said that while persistent market challenges remain, the fact the rate of increase had moderated significantly was a positive development.

“Two years ago, in the first half of 2022, the TPI recorded its highest ever 6-month inflation rate of 7.5%. So, we are clearly in a much better place now. The softening of the rate of increase is due in the main to the stabilisation of the price of building materials, reductions in energy and fuel costs along with greater competitiveness within the market. Reduced demand in some commercial sectors will help increase capacity within the industry for new projects.”

“However, in the second half of last year the market experienced continual challenges with frequent increases in financing costs, shortages of skilled labour and rising labour costs, all of which remain key issues today. Surveyors are consistently reporting the latter as the main driver behind the latest cost increases and the main challenge facing the industry at present. They say labour inflation is being driven by a combination of a shortage of skilled tradespeople and pressure from the cost-of-living crisis which is leading to increasing wage demands. The Sectoral Employment Order* increase of approximately 5% last year is also having an impact on tender levels.”

“Looking further afield SCSI members believe there is potential for geo-political issues, particularly the war in Gaza, to spread more widely and impact key supply routes, leading to additional transport costs.”

The President of the SCSI, Enda McGuane, said the latest report showed that concerted action was needed to address the skills shortage right across the construction sector.

“Given that the Housing for All targets should undergo significant upward revision in the near future, it’s also likely that the number of construction workers required to deliver the higher targets will also have to be revised upwards. We will clearly need more surveyors, electricians, engineers, plumbers, architects, and carpenters to name but a few. We need to attract more people into these roles and to develop alternative pathways to them.”

“While this will be a challenge, it also brings opportunities. Opportunities to work in new and exciting areas such as modular construction, operational data analysis or sustainability

consultancy. Opportunities also to address the gender imbalance across the built environment sector and the ongoing lack of diversity in the industry.”

Mr McGuane, who is the Asset Management Lead for the Land Development Agency, was speaking ahead of the SCSI’s annual dinner which takes place at the Clayton Burlington Hotel this evening (Thursday) and is due to be attended by over 1,300 chartered surveyors and guests.

The full Tender Price Index report is available at https://scsi.ie

*Sectoral Employment Orders (SEO) covering rates of pay, sick pay, and pensions in the construction sector were signed into legislation following acceptance by the Minister of State at the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, of recommendations from the Labour Court.

For more information 

Contact Kieran Garry 

GPR Communications 

087/2368366 

  [email protected]  

Methodology and Use of Data Notes  

The data outlined within this report was provided by SCSI Chartered Quantity Surveyors with direct expertise and knowledge on the market conditions in the construction sectors across the country. The statistics extracted from our member survey were utilised in outlining the findings of this report, which is intended to give a general overview of median commercial tender price trends within Ireland’s construction sector.

The Index is the only independent assessment of construction tender prices in Ireland. It is compiled by Chartered Quantity Surveying members of the SCSI. The Tender Price Index (TPI) 2H 2023 is based on sentiment returns only. The TPI is for commercial projects during the period in question. It is based predominately on new build projects with values in excess of € 0.5m and covers all regions of Ireland. The Index relates to median** price increases across differing project types and locations. It should be regarded as a guide only when looking at any specific project, as the pricing of individual projects will vary depending on such factors as their complexity, location, and timescales.

It is important that the Tender Price Indices report is used appropriately and not for all construction projects, including those in the residential sector and those below €0.5 million. The Tender Price Index 2H 2023 provides median reported figures across all project tiers, breakdowns by tier may vary. Project specific advice should be sought from a Chartered Quantity Surveyor before deciding an appropriate TPI provision for individual construction projects.

**From 1H 2021 onwards, the median value is used as the statistical methodology.

The post Tender Price Index 2024 – Press Release appeared first on Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland.

The main findings: 

• SCSI members expect residential property prices to increase by an average of 1% in 2024

• 63% of agents believe prices are either at peak or close to it and will level off soon

• Survey finds 36% of sales instructions in Q4 were landlords selling their investment property – down 4% on last year

• 76% of agents are reporting a shortage of supply – an increase of 10% on last year

• Case studies show new homes are affordable for first time buyer couples on combined gross income of €89,000 in most parts of the country – but in Greater Dublin Area the unaffordability gap is €62,000 – In Galway its €22,000

• The Northwest, Midlands and Southeast are the most affordable regions for first time buyers

• Just over a decade after they were introduced, 69% of agents say BER ratings are now an important or very important factor in relation to the level of an offer

• Upcoming change of Government / change of policy cited by some respondents as an issue in the elevated sales of buy to lets and a factor affecting future house prices

Tuesday 23^rd January 2024: A new survey by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland indicates residential property prices will continue to stabilise in the medium term with estate agents forecasting an increase of just 1% in 2024. Almost two out of three respondents (63%) believe property prices have either peaked and should start to decline or are close to peaking and will level off soon. The report found the main factors influencing expectations of house price movements are the supply of housing, interest rates and changes in the economy.

Case studies compiled as part of the survey – see below – show that while new 3 bed semi-detached homes are affordable for first time buyer couples with combined gross earnings of €89,000, they remain out of reach by tens of thousands of euro for first time buyers in the Greater Dublin Area.  This means that in Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, and Kildare the affordability gap is about €62,000, in Galway its €22,000.

The case studies, which are based on a couple employed as public servants – a garda and a nurse with ten years’ experience – indicate that the Northwest, Midlands, and Southeast are the most affordable regions for first time buyers.

John O’Sullivan, Chair of the SCSI’s Practice and Policy Committee said that after several years – during and immediately post covid – where the market experienced double digit price increases, it looks now as if prices are set to consolidate for the medium term.

“SCSI agents believe we will see modest growth in values in what will most likely be another challenging year for the property market. Three out of four agents or 76% of respondents are reporting a lack of supply to meet demand, that’s up 10% on last year. So, while price inflation has been dampened following the dramatic rise in interest rates, they have also been underpinned by the lack of supply.”

“That said prices are levelling off below current inflation rates and this is a welcome development for potential buyers as their purchasing power will increase as affordability improves. While the current supply of new homes is undoubtedly insufficient, SCSI agents say initiatives aimed at increasing supply are kicking in and that the situation will improve in the coming years. While this is most welcome, the skills shortage in the construction sector remains a critical issue which needs to be addressed.”

“Interestingly after supply, interest rates and the state of the economy, the fourth factor which members say will influence price movements is a potential change in Government and or housing policy. We know there is going to be a new Government in the next 14 months or so and some members are clearly picking up on the need to build on progress to date and to avoid knee jerk policy shifts which could introduce uncertainty into the market.”

Rental Market

The SCSI’s Annual Residential Review and Outlook report – now in its 41^st year – also found that one in three of properties coming on the market are buy-to-lets. On average 36% of residential sale instructions to agents in Q4 were landlords selling their investment property. While this is down 4% from last year, Mr O’Sullivan said it shows investors and landlords are continuing to exit the market in very significant numbers.

“While new taxation measures announced by the Government in Budget ’24 aimed at encouraging landlords and investors to remain in the market are only being implemented now, SCSI agents are saying the main reason rental units are continuing to come on the market in such numbers is that rent legislation is too complex and restrictive. The other reasons given are a potential change in Government / housing policy, net rental returns being too low, coming out of negative equity and pressure from lending institutions to liquidate assets.”

“We will have to wait and see what impact the new taxation measures will have but for now its clear landlords are continuing to exit the market in substantial numbers. And with mortgage approvals for residential investment lettings down 20% year on year, it’s clear those leaving are not being replaced in the same numbers by new investors. This in turn is going to affect the number and choice of rental units available on the market and contribute to higher rents.”

Sales not proceeding

There has been a steady increase in the proportion of SCSI agents reporting that sales are not proceeding. In the survey 27% of agents said there had been an increase in the numbers of sales not proceeding while 63% of agents reported that the level of sales not proceeding remained the same as the preceding six months, when the issue first came to prominence.

In its analysis the SCSI noted an increasing prevalence of members reporting significant frustration regarding delays within the probate process and in contacting the probate office. Agents highlighted challenges regarding an inefficient and lengthy conveyancing process and how this is impacting on sales as well as other issues such as planning irregularities, non-compliance with building regulations and boundary challenges.

Growing importance of BER Ratings

It is now just over a decade since Building Energy Ratings were first introduced and the SCSI thought it timely to ask about them and their impact on the sales process. Members believe there is a widening price gap between energy-efficient homes – rated B or higher – and their less efficient counterparts – rated C or lower. This is due to the time and costs required to pay for refurbishments to the latter, despite the availability of grants.

In the survey 69% of agents said they believed BER ratings are an important or very important influence on the level of offer made on a property.

Mr O’Sullivan said that while they started out initially as a mere footnote on property brochures, they were now front and centre in buyers’ thoughts.

“This is due to heightened environmental awareness, the recognition of the pressing need to tackle climate change, rising energy costs and the attractiveness of green mortgages with lower interest rates. Today energy-efficient homes are among the most coveted property types with some research putting their value circa 25% higher than non-efficient homes. It’s clear that trend is going to intensify.”

SCSI New Home Affordability Tracker

The average market value of a new three-bedroom semidetached home in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) is €464,036 as reported in the SCSI Real Cost of New Housing Report 2023.  Using figures from that report, these case studies examine affordability within the scenario of a couple who are first time buyers and employed as a garda and a nurse. The average combined gross incomes of two professions (with 10 years’ experience) in Ireland, is €89,000. Clearly there will be differences for buyers whose earnings fall below or exceed this level.

For these case studies their total LTI maximum loan limit is €356,000 (4 times gross salary). For those who earn less than this income level, the disparity between their borrowing capacity and the cost of purchasing a property will be even greater. As of December 2023, the GDA is the most unaffordable followed by Galway.  The most affordable locations are the Northwest, Midlands and Southeast.

Mr O’Sullivan said that whilst a more stable market with values levelling off will assist those wishing to purchase a home, the increasing construction costs, and uncertainty of where such costs will be in the future poses questions for the future viability of new projects. “Right now, new housing is most viable in the Greater Dublin Area, and this is where its most unaffordable. In very many cases the areas where new home building is least viable are the more affordable areas, such as the Midlands and Northwest.  To restore balance to the property market we need to ensure there is an adequate delivery of new housing through other avenues such as AHBs, via the Land Development Agency and through direct public housing delivery etc.”

Table 1. Affordability of purchasing a new three-bedroom semidetached home. Scenarios are based on combined gross wages of a garda / nurse couple with ten years’ experience or two civil servants at executive officer level with circa 9 years’ experience.

Note. Figures exclude First Homes Ireland Scheme. Help to Buy Scheme assumed to be included within the 10% deposit amount. Source SCSI The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023*

The SCSI’s Annual Residential Property Review and Outlook Report 2024 is available at www.scsi.ie or on request. 

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For further information 

Contact Kieran Garry 

GPR Communications 

087/2368366 

[email protected]  

Note to Editor

*The SCSI Real Cost of New Housing Delivery 2023 report  provides multiple recommendations to increase new supply and reduce the costs of delivery to improve affordability, such as:  removal of development levy costs; setting clear targets for constructing new units via modern methods of construction; and, design flexibility: allowing local authorities to approve alterations to specifications of buildings that do not materially alter the planning permission but allow for the use of more cost-effective building materials.

About the Survey

The SCSI Annual Residential Property Review & Outlook 2024 is a sentiment report, which is informed by the professional opinion of over 140 SCSI agents across the country and bring together their insights and local knowledge on Ireland’s sales and rental market. The questionnaire was completed by SCSI members in December and January.

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